Though ministers and defence chiefs say Britain will take its own decisions about the withdrawal from Afghanistan, pressure to accelerate the pullout of British troops will grow if the US president, Barack Obama, ends the surge abruptly.
David Cameron has already said 450 personnel will leave this summer of a force that varies from 9,500 to 11,000.
He could argue that a further reduction is possible next month, after the provincial capital of Helmand province, Lashkar Gah, is transferred from British to Afghan control. The city has been the headquarters for British forces and has been considered safe enough to be included in the first wave of the transition process that will eventually lead to Afghans taking over responsibility for security.
Cameron will have been briefed about the current security situation in Helmand, which is confused. Seven British servicemen have been killed there over the past month – which suggests that the Taliban are hitting back hard this summer, after a gruelling winter during which insurgents were forced out of some of their previous strongholds.
But drill down a little further into the figures, and a different picture emerges.
Last year in May British troops had "contact" with insurgent fighters 160 times in four weeks (15 in the first week of May, 30 in the second, 50 in the third and 65 in the fourth). This year the total for May was 96 "contacts" (11, 10, 45, 30).
The drop in the number of incidents suggests that the surge has had an effect, and British military commanders have argued now is not the time let up.
The armed forces minister, Nick Harvey, said it was "presumptuous" to assume the UK would take its lead from the US. Britain will make up its own mind about troop withdrawal based on the conditions on the ground, he insisted.
But if the White House sounds the start of the American retreat analysts expect the rest of the nations within the Nato force to form an orderly queue behind the president.
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