Not enough big-game experience.
Barely qualified for the playoffs.
And, sure, the quarterback's good, but that impregnable Pittsburgh Steelers defense will cool him off.
If those sound like labels you'd affix to the 2010 Green Bay Packers, think back two years. The Arizona Cardinals entered Super Bowl XLIII fighting similar perceptions.
And then they ran for a meager 33 yards in that game. They committed nearly a dozen penalties. They were perched on the Pittsburgh 1-yard line at the end of the first half poised to take the lead but instead threw the ball to Steelers linebacker James Harrison and gave up a spectacular 100-yard interception return for a touchdown — a seeming surefire backbreaker vs. Steel Curtain 2.0.
WHY STEELERS WILL WIN: Running game, defense will step up
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But …
Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner, captain of a squad whose 9-7 regular-season record tied for the worst of any Super Bowl entrant, passed for 377 yards and three touchdowns against a defense that had fallen 55 rushing yards short of leading every major defensive category that season and was being hailed as one of the greatest ever.
Only a miraculous 78-yard drive capped in the waning seconds by a touchdown from tightrope-walking wideout Santonio Holmes saved the vaunted Steelers that day.
Guess what? Two years later, the Steelers aren't quite as good and, more important, these Packers are a lot better than those Cardinals.
And that's why Green Bay could soon be Titletown again.
"This could be a once-in-a-lifetime thing," said Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who solicited advice from his buddy Warner.
"I hope it's not. But you've got to savor every opportunity that you have."
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The Pack's opportunity is golden.
Rodgers has thrust himself into the conversation when talk turns to elite quarterbacks.
He leads virtually every major passing category in the playoffs, including the most important one: wins, after leading the wild-card Packers to three in a row, not to mention two do-or-die contests to end the regular season.
He boasts an even deeper receiving corps than Warner did and could really make the Steelers pay through the air, just like he did in 2009 when he burned them for 383 yards and three touchdowns.
But even if Pro Bowl wide receiver Greg Jennings can't replicate Larry Fitzgerald's Super Bowl heroics (seven grabs, 127 yards, two TDs, the second staking Arizona to a 23-20 lead with 2:37 to go), expect Rodgers to get plenty from crafty Donald Driver and perhaps even more from James Jones and Jordy Nelson, who could render Steelers nickel and dime backs William Gay and Anthony Madison overmatched.
And by spreading Pittsburgh wide with those sub packages, Green Bay will force two of the Steelers vaunted front seven off the field … perhaps even opening rare running lanes for rookie tailback James Starks, who's finally brought credibility to the Packers ground game.
Speaking of defense, the Steelers are awfully impressive, if not as stout as the 2008 version, which was largely shredded by Warner. But they also will be without injured defensive end Aaron Smith (triceps), an underrated component. Perhaps more important, all-pro strong safety Troy Polamalu has not looked himself in the playoffs as he continues to manage an Achilles tendon injury.
Conversely, the Green Bay defense is vastly superior to the one Arizona fielded and is arguably on the same plane as Pittsburgh's.
The Packers' NFC-best pass rush (47 sacks) will line up against two tackles who weren't projected to start when the Steelers opened training camp. Worse, Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey will not play (high ankle sprain), leaving backup Doug Legursky to cope with behemoth yet slippery nose tackle B.J. Raji.
Even if Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger sidesteps or sheds Clay Matthews, Raji and Co. in (or out of) the pocket, he's not going to find Holmes for a game-winning touchdown in triple coverage. That's because Holmes is now a New York Jet. And even though blazing Mike Wallace has capably filled his golden-toed shoes, he'll have a tough time exploiting a Green Bay secondary stocked with three Pro Bowlers, two of them at cornerback.
Says one of those corners, 2009 defensive player of the year Charles Woodson: "I've never felt better about a team than I do about this team right now."
Even though Woodson and defensive end Ryan Pickett are the only Packers who have played in the Super Bowl, we're betting their collective lack of experience in the game won't deprive Green Bay of an experience only it could boast: a 13th NFL championship
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